Trump tariff escalation sinks markets (again)
On Friday morning, Donald Trump decided to ruin investors' Memorial Day holiday weekend by threatening Apple with 25% tariffs on foreign-made iPhones and 50% tariffs on Europe. Stocks sank worldwide in response.
Whether the president will carry through on his threats remains to be seen. His track record for implementing such actions in the recent past has been spotty at best. Nonetheless, the armies of proprietary traders and algorithmic computers that control markets always shoot first and ask questions later.
I must confess that the timing of these announcements is somewhat suspect. Throughout the week (until Friday morning), the serious issues we face in the nation's debt and spending was the focus of investors’ attention. Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" passed the Republican House by a narrow margin. The consensus on Wall Street Bond was that this budget-busting bill was over the top. Last week, I warned readers that the House bill would increase the nation's debt and deficit. The bill will increase the deficit by almost $3 trillion over ten years and $4-5 trillion to our debt load.
While stocks rose a little in relief that the GOP could at least pass a significant piece of legislation, if only by a vote or two, bond investors both here and abroad were not happy. The U.S. Treasury's 20-year bond auction on the eve of the bill passage could only be described as ugly. Investors went on a buyer's strike, which sent the yields on government bonds higher across the board. The ten- and thirty-year bonds saw their yields break 4.5% and 5%, respectively. That drove equity investors into a tizzy. Markets declined with the dollar, while gold and cryptocurrencies spiked higher.
The stock market has drawn a line in the sand for months on bond yields. The lights begin flashing red when the yield on ten-year government bonds reaches 4.5%. At that point, many believe interest rates start to dent economic growth, corporate earnings, and, therefore, valuations in the stock market.
The downgrade of the nation's debt by Moody's credit agency from AAA to Aa1 this week didn't help the mood either. It was the last of the big three credit agencies to downgrade U.S. debt. They cited the growing burden of financing the federal government's budget deficit and the rising cost of rolling over existing debt amid high interest rates. It is now costing more than $1 trillion per year to do so.
By Thursday, bond yields continued to climb. The thirty-year hit 5.11%, while the tens were yielding 4.6%. Equities struggled to hold onto their gains. Investors were torn between relief that the continued tax breaks since 2018 would continue and worries that the debt-fueled fall in the dollar and rise in interest rates would continue.
The administration argues that its policies, tax breaks, and deregulation will allow the economy to grow its way out of the debt and deficit quandary. It is a risk. The alternative of just slashing spending would likely result in a recession, higher unemployment, and a Republican loss in the mid-term elections.
In the meantime, the dollar has now lost 8% since Trump took office. Fears of a burgeoning debt and deficit problem, policy uncertainty. The trend of 'money going home' has been cited as the cause of the decline. I suspect a weaker dollar has been part of the administration's economic plan from the beginning.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent knew that U.S. tariffs would trigger a corresponding increase in tariffs on American imports by our trading partners worldwide. Putting aside the threat of reciprocal tariffs, the administration appears determined to maintain its global 10% on all imported goods and services. Logically, other nations will retaliate with a 10% tariff on our goods. Those tariffs would hurt American exporters unless the dollar declined by the same amount as the tariff.
By the week's close, however, Trump had managed to shift investors' attention away from the bonds and debt debate and back on him and tariffs in just two social media posts before the markers opened. His posts also sent the ten-year bond yield below 4.5%, pushing the dollar further. Mission accomplished.
As for the stock market, in my last column I wrote that the equity markets are in a trading range. As such, we can see further weakness in the averages into next week before bouncing back higher. Gold continues to shine. Bitcoin reached a new high, and the dollar continues to decline.
As usual, we remain Trump-dependent, and Friday's announcements only underscore that point. He is a master of marketing, and this Memorial Day you can be sure that the topic at BBQs will be Donald Trump and his tariffs and not the price of beef, and that is just how he wants it.
Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners, Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or e-mail him at billiams1948@gmail.com. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal.