The markets' flash correction
The market's decline has been one of the fastest in history. The fall has been fueled by the Trump administration's economic policies. The question most investors are wrestling with is what to do about it.
Looking back on this period in a year or two, I guarantee that most investors will have trouble remembering exactly what happened. There is nothing abnormal in this decline thus far except its speed. It is a simple garden variety pullback, which occurs at least once a year if not more. It is the price of doing business for equity investors and savers with tax-deferred retirement accounts.
Given that, the decline is probably a good thing for an over-extended market on the upside. Stocks normally take the escalator up and the elevator down. In the pain game, I believe fast is better than slow when dealing with the emotional side of investing. Hopefully, the markets will bounce before too many more negative emotions surface.
I say that because emotions are your greatest enemy when investing. It would be a rare reader indeed who isn't feeling worried and stressed right now when dealing with the market. The S&P 500 Index is down more than 10%, NASDAQ -17% and the Russell 2000 -18%. Is it time to bail?
No. The time for that decision is past. A month ago, taking some off the table may have made sense. Today it doesn't. 'But what if it goes down even more?' Let it, at worst you are halfway through a 20% correction but more likely on the eve of a turnaround.
Tom Lee, the founder of FSInsight, and a frequent guest on CNBC, reminds us that since 1928 going to cash and missing the 10 best days in a year reduces returns from 8% annually to -13%.
September 2022 was the last time investors were this pessimistic, according to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
At the end of February, the proportion of investors identifying as bearish reached 60.6%. Historically, when this has occurred, the average subsequent 12-month return has been 24%.
How can you resist that desire to sell? Stop looking at your accounts. Watching your portfolio daily in a down market is behavioral suicide. Don't do that.
So enough with the pep talk. Instead, the market had some good news this week for a change. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in cooler than most expected. I say 'most' because my forecast of weaker inflation numbers proved accurate. Next month's data will show a 2.4% CPI, which will be weaker again. The following month should show a decrease as well. However, given the markets' focus on tariffs and Trump's economic policies, the inflation news did not matter to investors.
I expect the unemployment rate will rise as the administration reduces the number of the 3 million federal government workers. If you combine that trend with a slowing economy that is also being engineered by President Trump and his motley crew, we will have developed a perfect storm. That will provide a gateway for the Federal Reserve Bank to begin cutting interest rates once again.
Remember the Fed has two areas of responsibility: fighting inflation and maintaining employment. Chair Jerome Powell has already stated several times that the Fed now considers employment the focus of monetary policies. The bond market is already betting on a rate cut as early as May or June, with more to follow. That should be good for the stock market, which usually begins to discount events six months out.
Over the last few weeks, I have warned investors to expect as much as a 10-12% decline in the S&P 500 depending on the president's actions. He has delivered on that assessment and thus the markets decline. He continues to rile markets and therefore the potential for additional downside remains.
The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers dropped another 10% in March. Trump has now admitted his policies will cause at least a slowdown in the economy, higher unemployment, and as for inflation, who knows?
The president promises this will all be worth it for those who have faith. Depending on your political bent, you either believe him or not. The stock markets, however, do not deal in faith. The data says stagflation, which has been my prediction for several months. What does well in that environment is foreign markets that do not suffer from the same malady, bonds, and precious metals. This week, gold hit record highs, China and Europe climbed higher, and bonds did much better than stocks.
As for the overall market, it is Trump-dependent, and the president has shown that he is no friend of the stock markets. Wall Street strategists and technicians are looking for at least a dead cat bounce. That is certainly possible given that we still have three weeks until the April 2 reciprocal tariffs are implemented. Who knows, the president might lose his voice in the meantime, change his mind on the tariffs or something may occur out of left field that we aren't expecting.
Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners, Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or e-mail him at billiams1948@gmail.com. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal.