Rising coffee prices are a bitter brew for consumers
September 19th was National Coffee Day. Starbucks, Dunkin', Dutch Bros, and other coffee chains offered discounts on coffee. That did little to relieve the sticker shock most consumers are feeling now. The 20% price hike year over year for their morning brew has been hard to swallow.
In the futures market, Arabica coffee has traded as high as $4.18 per pound in September, the highest price in almost a year. In grocery aisles, ground roast coffee prices recently reached $8.41 per pound before falling back over the last two weeks. Overall, the cost of coffee imports to the United States has increased by more than 300% since the lows of 2020. Five years ago, a bag of coffee was fetching roughly $80 per standard bag (132-154 pounds or so). Today, that same quantity is approaching $368.
More than 99% of the coffee Americans drink is imported, as only Puerto Rico and Hawaii grow significant quantities of the crop. Coffee is the second most popular beverage in the U.S., after bottled water, with 63% of Americans drinking it daily.
Like most commodities, the prices of soft commodities fluctuate according to supply and demand. Last year, for example, I discussed the skyrocketing cost of cocoa and its impact on chocolate prices. Since then, cocoa prices have dropped from a high of $12,626 per ton to $6,759 today. Coffee prices react similarly.
Consumers may also notice a price differential depending on whether they purchase their caffeine fix from a grocery store, a restaurant, or a coffee chain. Supermarket prices fluctuate more than a cup of coffee at Starbucks or other coffee chains. That is because grocers are quick to raise store prices as coffee prices rise and reverse just as quickly when they fall. Coffee chains, on the other hand, prefer to draw down on their existing coffee inventories rather than buy expensive beans on the open market.
The primary factor underlying the price of coffee (like cocoa) is climate change. Coffee cultivation and yield are highly sensitive to the environment. Extreme weather in both Brazil and Vietnam, major coffee-producing countries, has damaged the coffee crop frequently in the past few years. A severe drought in Brazil during last summer season decimated the coffee crop. Given that Brazil supplies 40% of the world's coffee, the shortfall had a significant impact on import prices for the U.S., which accounts for 32% of Brazilian coffee exports.
The number two producer, Vietnam, also suffered a drought, resulting in a 20% reduction in coffee production last year. Making matters worse, the nation experienced precipitation whiplash (an increasingly common occurrence in climate change). That is where drought is followed by heavy rainstorms, wiping out even further production. Supply chain disruptions are also contributing to the rising cost of coffee, as are global inflation and trade policies. The price of coffee reached a near-50-year high in February of this year.
In the last two weeks, prices in the futures market for coffee have declined slightly, trading around $376 per pound. Traders are hedging their bets ahead of a meeting between U.S. President Trump and his Brazilian counterpart, President Lula da Silva. After bumping into each other during the UN General Assembly last Tuesday, the president said that "we agreed to meet next week."
A deal could provide some price relief. What do presidential politics have to do with the price of coffee? Plenty. The president has levied a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, including coffee. Once one of our strongest allies in South America, Brazil is now at odds with the president. The country refused to drop charges against its former President Jair Bolsonaro, a friend and ally of Donald Trump.
Bolsonaro was subsequently tried and convicted of plotting a coup and sentenced to 27 years in prison. As a result, an angry Trump slapped tariffs on the country. He justified these levies by claiming that Bolsonaro's conviction somehow created an economic emergency for the U.S. America has a $6.8 billion trade surplus with Brazil, meaning it imports more than it exports from the U.S.
A bipartisan group in Congress is well aware of that. They claim the tariffs put a new tax on coffee every morning and have recently introduced the "No Coffee Tax Act." The legislation would repeal the Trump-era tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil, Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Indonesia. Good luck with that. I wouldn’t count on Congress for much of anything without the president’s approval.
Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners, Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401, email him at billiams1948@gmail.com, or visit his website at www.schmicksretiredinvestor.com. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal.