June should be a good month for stocks but watch out for July

Stocks should climb a bit higher this month.  The next round of tariffs is not due to be levied until July nor will Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) be passed until then. That gives investors some breathing room to book some gains.

The first quarter earnings season is just about over. Overall results have beat estimates by 6% with 79% of companies delivering an upside earnings surprise.  The incoming economic data has been mostly favorable but much of the data reflects an economy that has been rushing to purchase what it can before the onset of further tariffs.

A key economic indicator, The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), data for May showed a slowdown in business new orders and services and an increase in prices and employment. That is in keeping with my own forecast of an ongoing mild case of economic stagflation.

The employment numbers for May – a gain of 139,000 jobs--indicated that the labor market remained largely resilient amid the government’s new tariff policy. I am forecasting a slowdown in the economy but am still expecting a 1.8% gain in GDP for the second quarter, followed by a 1.36% gain in the fourth quarter—slow but no recession. Those data points are a bit higher than most economists are expecting. On the inflation front, I see the Consumer Price Index for April announced to show a 2.36% increase year-over-year. Regular readers know I am predicting that the data will begin to show an uptick in the inflation rate that will continue into year’s end.

That is one reason why I doubt the Federal Reserve Bank will bow to the president’s wishes to cut interest rates anytime soon. The bond market has penciled in two rate cuts before years’ end, but it is hard to see that happening with rising inflation. One caveat would be that if the tariff war drove the economy into recession, while employment fell off a cliff, the Fed might be forced to cut.

In the meantime, after months of promising trade agreements were just around the corner, Wall Street is in a “show me” frame of mind. The most progress on trade this week was a brief phone call between the president and his Chinese counterpart and a meeting with the newly elected  German leader, Friedrich Merz. Investors are convinced that the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) tariff play is alive and well within the White House.

The administration has until June 9th to justify its sweeping tariffs under the Emergency Powers Act before the U.S. Court of Appeals. If unsuccessful,  the Court of International Trades’ decision a week ago to block those tariffs will stand. If so, legal experts predict the case will go to the Supreme Court immediately. In the meantime, our trading partners will most certainly drag their feet in tariff negotiations.

And while investors are no longer ‘tariffed,’ the spending side of the BBB is before the Senate. It has been crucified by the President’s best Bro and mega bucks campaign backer, Elon Musk of Tesla. Musk has blasted the BBB as a ‘disgusting abomination’ and demanded Congress  ‘Kill the Bill.’

 The forever friendship of the two amigos seems to have hit the rocks, if their vitriolic exchanges on social media this week are any indication. Will they kiss and make up? Let’s hope so. Musk, through his ownership of X,  has a large and powerful social media presence that could pose a serious threat to the bill’s passage.  Given their slim majority in both the House and Senate, the Republicans face the uncomfortable prospect of renegotiating the spending portion of this bill.

As for the markets, I wrote that the S&P 500 Index is in a trading range. My upside target is 6,100-6,150 or 100 to 150 points from here. This should happen in fits and starts working its way higher into July. At that point, traders will begin to discount the ramifications of possible tariffs and the passage of the tax and spending bill on inflation, growth, debt and the deficit.

Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires.  Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners, Inc. (OPI).  None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice.  Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or e-mail him at billiams1948@gmail.com. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal.