Inflation data supports markets in the short term
It wasn’t difficult to predict that this week's July inflation data would be cooler. Last month, oil declined on the unfounded hopes of peace in the Middle East. That showed up in the numbers, but what about next month and beyond?
Oil is trading at $80-$82/bbl. That is up more than $4.00 from July 1, 2026, or almost 5.5%. As such, I expect the August Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index to be higher than the results reported for July. And what happens if the Straits remain closed? Could we see $85, $90, or higher for a barrel of West Texas crude?
Nothing the Trump administration has tried has succeeded in unlocking the stalemate over the Straits of Hormuz. Intelligence assessments over the last few weeks indicate that without boots on the ground, the U.S. Navy could not open the Straits on its own. A land invasion would be difficult, if not impossible, and the severe loss of life unacceptable.
So, both sides are now playing a waiting game. The U.S. is applying continued economic pressure to Iran, hoping to force the hardline leadership to cave. The Iranians, long accustomed to economic pressure from the West, seem undeterred and have developed ways to grow their economy despite sanctions.
The regime has also become more entrenched thanks to the invasion. Rather than accede, they are content to use delaying tactics at the negotiating table while demonstrating their ability to strike militarily whenever they want. They know that the longer oil prices remain where they are or higher, the more likely it is that winning the mid-term elections will be difficult for Trump and the Republican Party. That could lead Congress to force an end to the war.
Given this background, why haven’t we seen even higher oil prices? One reason is that oil demand is declining according to both OPEC and the International Energy Agency. The other reason could be that more oil is making its way out of the region than is reported. By some estimates, as much as 16 million barrels per day is making its way either through the Straits or through regional pipelines. That compares with approximately 20 million bbl. per day before the conflict.
Understandably, the U.S. financial markets have lost faith with constant U.S. assurances that a deal is right around the corner. We are in the ‘show me or shut up’ stage of the war. Until there is a definitive opening of the Straits with tankers traveling through the passage at a pace like before the U.S. attack, the oil price will remain higher. How high that risk premium will go is at this point up to the Iranians.
The new CPI reading of 2.5%, higher than the inflation rate last year at this time but only a monthly gain of 0.2% from June’s number, was in line with my forecasts. It seems clear to me that Wednesday’s numbers were leaked. All the asset classes that would benefit from a weaker CPI number were up substantially well before the 8:30 AM data release.
The Producer Price Index was unchanged from June. From here, inflation moves higher in my opinion. As for the string of good inflation numbers we have had lately, I suspect the data will not sway the Fed members from their watch-and-wait stance.
Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the central bank, has already said, “I do not find the current Fed policy of ‘data dependence’ of much real value. We should care little about two numbers to the right of the decimal point in the latest government release.” However, the June data should put to rest any fears that we will see a rate hike at the next meeting in September.
On a side note, readers who agree with my misgivings about the accuracy and leaking of government data should note that U.S. jobs numbers have been revised lower in 21 of the last 30 months by a total of -1.05 million jobs. This means an average of -35,067 jobs have been revised out of previously reported data each month over this period. June and May jobs numbers alone were revised down by a total of -103,000, the largest 2-month downward revision since July 2025. It makes me doubt the trustworthiness of government data.
Stocks continued to climb higher on the back of the inflation data. As bets on an interest rate hike fall well below 50%, animal spirits are revving up, and many Wall Street strategists are talking about 8.000 as the next stop on the S&P 500 Index. Next week we could see some further consolidation before another run higher. I would buy the dip if we had a more substantial sell-off.
Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners, Inc. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to his website at www.schmicksretiredinvestor.com. Investments in securities are not insured, protected, or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal.