How the U.S. can manage its increasing debt load
U.S. deficits are going through the roof and interest payments on our debt load account for an increasing share of gross domestic product. We are not alone in facing this trend. The question is what monetary and fiscal policymakers will do about it.
The time-honored, go-to strategy that has worked well for decades among nations in times like these is to devalue one's currency. How does that work?
Readers need to understand that the level of interest rates plays an important role in currency devaluation. For example, the U.S. dollar and U.S. interest rates work hand in hand. When traders buy dollars, they don't just keep their money in the currency and hope it goes up. Most often they buy dollar-denominated Treasury bonds where they can get an interest rate return on their money. If the Federal Reserve Bank cuts interest rates the return for holding those dollars is reduced. That triggers a move to sell the dollar and buy bonds in another currency that yields more. The opposite occurs when the Fed raises rates as they have been doing for the last two years. How does this impact the U.S. debt load?
In the simplest terms, imagine I owe you $10, if I push down the dollars’ worth by lowering interest rates, those ten greenbacks of debt will be worth less as well. If I keep doing that, over time, my debt to you becomes more and more manageable, since it too is less valuable.
You, the lender, may not be happy about it, but there are compensations. A weaker dollar may mean the lender (foreigners who buy our debt, for example) can buy more products priced in cheaper dollars with their currencies. If their plans also include investing money in plants and equipment in America, the cost of doing so suddenly becomes cheaper and they can build more for less.
The key to succeeding at such a strategy is coordination among nations, and a lot of it. Otherwise, it becomes a currency free-for-all and a race to the bottom for all concerned. Most nations understand this from prior experience, and so central bankers and their treasury counterparts work behind the scenes to ensure an even keel in devaluation that over time allows their debt loads to be reduced.
I believe the devaluation of the dollar has already started. It was, in my opinion, partially behind the Yen-carry trade debacle (“Japanic Monday”) of three weeks ago. The dollar, after years of strength, had been falling gradually against many currencies for weeks, but not the Yen. The actions of the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates slightly forced the Yen to strengthen against the dollar practically overnight. This currency catch-up trade caused havoc around the world. Bankers want to avoid this kind of fallout whenever possible.
Many believe that a potential rebound in the inflation rate is behind the record run in gold prices recently, but that is not the whole story. There are many global traders, as well as a whole host of central banks, that realize a devaluation of the dollar is underway and have been buying gold as an alternative form of currency.
How will devaluing a dollar to ease our debt impact you? Since a weaker dollar means that the dollar can be exchanged for less foreign currency, producing goods priced in dollars and goods made in other countries is more expensive for American consumers. Devaluation can also lead to higher inflation. Therefore, a devaluation must be managed carefully. And finally, it could lead to lower profits for some companies that import a great deal of materials from offshore. That could lead to layoffs in the labor force.
Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners, Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or e-mail him at billiams1948@gmail.com. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income and/or principal.